A tale of two referenda: How the EU debate could poison the Scotland debate

Posted on May 20, 2013 by Kevin Lees

In a static world, it’s easy to believe that UK prime minister David Cameron’s call in January 2013 for a referendum on the United Kingdom’s continued membership in the European Union will never come to pass — it depends upon the reelection of a Conservative-led in the 2015 general election, Cameron’s continued Tory leadership and [...]

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As Hollande marks one year in office, would Dominique Strauss-Kahn have been better for France?

Posted on May 15, 2013 by Kevin Lees

Today is the one-year anniversary of François Hollande’s inauguration as the new president of France, having swept to the Elysée Palace with a mandate for a more subdued presidential administration and a leftward turn after the ‘bling bling’ administration of center-right president Nicolas Sarkozy. Hollande won’t face voters again for four more years, and by 2017, [...]

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Gunnlaugsson now unexpectedly in line to form Icelandic government

Posted on May 1, 2013 by Kevin Lees

Despite the fact that Iceland’s long-ruling Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn (Independence Party) won about 2% more in voter support in Saturday’s parliamentary elections, it looks like Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson, the leader of the second-place Framsóknarflokkurinn (Progressive Party), will have the first shot at forming a government. That’s because both parties ultimately won 19 seats each in the Alþingi, Iceland’s parliament, and Iceland’s president, Ólafur Ragnar [...]

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What Iceland’s election tells us about post-crisis European politics

Posted on April 29, 2013 by Kevin Lees

Iceland was supposed to be different. In allowing its banks to fail, neo-Keynesian economists have argued, Iceland avoided the fate of Ireland, which nationalized its banks and now faces a future with a very large public debt.  By devaluing its currency, the krónur, Iceland avoided the fate of countries like Estonia and others in southern Europe [...]

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Iceland’s election spells the end for its EU accession hopes

Posted on April 26, 2013 by Kevin Lees

With capital controls still in place, a massively devalued krónur and galloping inflation, Iceland’s economy is not back to normal.  But it’s enough back to normal so that the window for Iceland’s accession to the European Union — or even, as was assumed during the worst days of its 2008 banking crisis, accession to the [...]

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Center-right parties poised to return to power in Iceland

Posted on April 25, 2013 by Kevin Lees

Kim Jong-un, at age 30, is the world’s youngest leader, and there are only a handful of thirtysomething world leaders. But if polls are correct, Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson (pictured above) may lead Iceland’s Framsóknarflokkurinn (Progressive Party) to victory in April 27′s parliamentary elections, giving the Progressives their best victory since 1931 and, perhaps, in its [...]

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Regling denies north-south European divide, claims EFSM a ‘lot of solidarity’

Posted on April 18, 2013 by Kevin Lees

If you were at Brookings Thursday afternoon, you could have taken away the following points: Olli Rehn (pictured above), European commissioner for economic and monetary affairs and vice president of the European Commission, thinks the eurozone will return to growth by the end of 2013. Klaus Regling, chief executive officer of the European Financial Stability [...]

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WIth referendum call, Tusk gently backs away from eurozone

Posted on March 27, 2013 by Kevin Lees

The economic blogosphere is lighting up over reports that Polish prime minister Donald Tusk is now talking about a referendum for his country to join the eurozone. That’s a big deal on the surface — with 40 million people, Poland is the largest European Union member after the United Kingdom not to use the single [...]

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Gaspar defends Portuguese economic program at Brookings

Posted on March 27, 2013 by Kevin Lees

Portuguese finance minister Vítor Gaspar (pictured above) spoke to a small audience at the Brookings Institution Tuesday, notably less than 36 hours after Cyprus and the ‘troika’ of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund agreed on the terms for a Cypriot bailout — the fifth such eurozone bailout during [...]

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Scotland sets a referendum date: September 18, 2014

Posted on March 22, 2013 by Kevin Lees

Scotland’s first minister, Alex Salmond, has set September 18, 2014 as the date for the referendum on potential Scottish independence. Polls have been relatively consistent, with support for independence at around 30% to 35% and with support for continued union with England at around 50% to 55%. But the up-or-down vote will come in 18 [...]

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Cypriot parliament overwhelmingly rejects EU bailout terms, turns to Plan B

Posted on March 19, 2013 by Kevin Lees

This was not surprising. After a couple of delays, Cyprus’s 56-member House of Representatives (Βουλή των Αντιπροσώπων) has rejected the European Union-led bailout of Cyprus’s banks by a vote of 0 to 36, with 19 abstaining and one not present. As I wrote yesterday, the parliamentary rejection became increasingly likely as the vote became delayed. [...]

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What comes next for Cyprus and the EU following Friday’s haircut ‘bail-in’?

Posted on March 18, 2013 by Kevin Lees

So much for ‘nice Nic’ — it’s not that he’s reverted back to ‘nasty Nic’ so much as ‘nonessential Nic.’ Fifteen days after his inauguration as Cyprus’s new president, Nicos Anastasiades (pictured above, bottom), was forced into what’s now become a growing domestic, eurozone and international crisis when European Union and International Monetary Fund leaders presented Anastasiades [...]

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Václav Klaus, fresh from Czech presidency, discusses eurozone in Washington

Posted on March 11, 2013 by Kevin Lees

Just three days after leaving the Czech presidency, Václav Klaus spoke at the Cato Institute in Washington earlier today — Klaus is joining Cato as a senior distinguished fellow this spring. Klaus, who stepped down after a decade in office, didn’t break much new ground — his remarks were essentially everything you’d expect from the famously [...]

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Greenland’s election a case study in climate change, sovereignty, China, the EU and the Arctic’s future

Posted on March 8, 2013 by Kevin Lees

It’s home to just 57,000 people, but when Greenland’s voters go to the polls on March 12, they will be choosing a path that could have global implications — for the European Union, the United States and China, and the future of the Arctic as an economically viable region, with climate change opening the far [...]

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Cyprus votes for ‘Nice Nic’ as Anastasiades sweeps to victory pledging bailout talks

Posted on February 24, 2013 by Kevin Lees

Cypriot voters have selected a new president in today’s runoff, finishing the business they started last weekend in the first round of the presidential election. Nicos Anastasiades, the candidate of the center-right Democratic Rally (DISY, Δημοκρατικός Συναγερμός or Dimokratikós Sinayermós) has won 57.48% of the vote to just 42.52% for health minister Stavros Malas, the candidate of the [...]

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