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Haddad (and Lula) triumph over Serra in São Paulo mayoral race

Fernando Haddad, a former education minister, defeated José Serra, a longtime powerhouse of the Brazilian center-right, in today’s mayoral runoff in Brazil’s most populous city, São Paulo amid several runoffs from municipal elections in Brazil on Oct. 14.  

The result will be a setback to Serra’s national aspirations, but will embolden Haddad’s party, the governing Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT, Workers’ Party), the current president Dilma Rousseff, and her predecessor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.  In particular, Haddad is seen very much as Lula’s protégé, and Lula campaigned vigorously on his behalf.  Haddad won the runoff with just about 56% of the vote to just 44% for Serra.  Haddad had served as education minister for Lula first, then Rousseff, since 2005, stepping down earlier this year to run for mayor.  As education minister, Haddad instituted national standardized testing in Brazil.

His victory will give Brazil’s governing party control over Brazil’s primary city for the first time in eight years.

Serra has been a fixture in Brazilian politics since the 1980s, when he was first elected as a federal deputy to the Brazilian congress.  He served as a minister of planning, then as a minister of health, in the administration of Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1994 to 2002), which preceded Lula’s presidency.  After losing the presidential race to Lula in 2002, Serra became the mayor of São Paulo from 2005 to 2006, leaving in the middle of his term to run for the position of governor of São Paulo state, which he won and held from 2007 to 2010.  His 2010 presidential run was much more competitive, but he still lost to Rousseff in a runoff by a 56% to 44% margin.

In many ways, the mayoral race was seen as the continuation of the long-running fight between the Lula and Serra that began with the 2002 presidential election — both Lula and Serra are thought to be considering a run in the 2014 presidential election as well.  Lula, who was limited from seeking three consecutive terms, stepped aside on behalf of his successor, Rousseff, and it is uncertain if she will seek reelection in her own right. Continue reading Haddad (and Lula) triumph over Serra in São Paulo mayoral race

Paes wins reelection in Rio in advance of 2016 Olympics; Serra leads mayoral race in São Paulo

Boris Johnson, move over. Eduardo Paes (pictured above, top) was reelected as mayor today of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil’s second-most populous — but most evocative — city during municipal elections that saw José Serra (pictured above, bottom), a perennial figure of the Brazilian right, lead the race for mayor of São Paulo.

Paes easily won reelection with 64.60% of the vote, representing a wide coalition that includes not only his own party, the wide Partido do Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (PMDB, the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party), but also the leftist Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT, Workers’ Party) of Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.  He faced an energetic opponent in Marcelo Freixo of the Partido Socialismo e Liberdade (PSOL, the Socialism and Freedom Party), a state assemblyman in the state of Rio de Janeiro and a human rights activist, who received around 28.15% of the vote after waging a savvy campaign through aggressive use of social networks like Twitter and won the support of much of Brazil’s cultural elite — and his increasing support in the days leading up to today’s election, coupled with his criticism of the Olympic development as an unequal move benefitting corporations more than society, had given the International Olympic Committee some cause for alarm.  Freixo had challenged the evictions and clearings that have marked the push to prepare Rio for not just 2016, but also the 2014 World Cup.

Paes, who has served as Rio’s mayor since 2008, however, was able to brag that he brought the 2016 Olympic Summer Games to the city — and can take credit for the widely acknowledged improvements in the city, especially as regards the ongoing ‘pacification’ of the once-notorious favela slums that dot the hillsides above the richer parts of Rio below — the ‘pacification’ campaign involves both the implementation of police control over a favela and wresting control, often by force, of each slum from drug gangs and criminal forces, but also the institution of better schools and other municipal services designed to keep the favelas firmly within the city’s control.  In addition, Paes is working to build four new superhighways in advance of 2016, has improved bus transit and has spearheaded an overhaul of the Porto Maravilha that served as the city’s main port during the Portuguese colonial era.

Despite the surprisingly widespread availability of Twitter in favelas, Paes’s coalition of 16 parties gave him access to 16 minutes of free daily public broadcast time during the campaign, giving him an advantage over Freixo’s 1 minute and 22 seconds, in addition to the other perks of incumbency and the benefits of having been associated with nabbing South America’s first Olympic Games.

The win will be a mild victory for the Workers’ Party as well — it is expected that Rousseff will likely run for reelection, although Lula will also be eligible to run (presidents are limited to just two consecutive terms, but are not limited as to two terms for life).  The Workers’ Party has been subdued by the constant drip of trial proceedings over a political corruption scandal from the early 2000s.

The Workers’ Party will be even more thrilled with the mayoral election in Brazil’s most populous city, São Paulo, where its candidate Fernando Haddad, a former federal minister of education, won 28.99% of the vote, narrowly trailing Serra, the candidate of the centrist Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB, the Brazilian Social Democracy Party), who won 30.75%.  Celso Russomanno, a famous television consumer advocate in the 1990s and candidate of the small Partido Republicano Brasileiro (PRB, Brazilian Republican Party), had led polls for most of the race and was considered the frontrunner, but finished a disappointing third with just 21.60%.

Russomanno, with backing from the evangelist Universal Church of the Kingdom of God, had shown success throughout the campaign in winning support in the traditional strongholds of the Workers’ Party.  Haddad, a former minister of education in Lula’s administration, was seen as a weak candidate imposed as the party’s standard-bearer by Lula himself.

 Haddad and Serra will now advance to a runoff vote to determine who will become São Paulo’s mayor, and a win for Haddad would be a huge triumph for the Workers’ Party.

Serra, who lost the Brazilian presidential election by a wide margin in 2002 to Lula and by a narrower margin in 2010 to Rousseff, served as minister of planning and minister of health during the administration of former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso, who preceded Lula as president from 1994 to 2002.  More recently, Serra was elected as mayor of São Paulo for the first time in 2004, although he left the post early to contest the governorship of São Paulo state in 2006, which he subsequently won.  Serra had broken a pledge he made in the 2004 campaign to remain mayor through his whole term, however.

Continue reading Paes wins reelection in Rio in advance of 2016 Olympics; Serra leads mayoral race in São Paulo

Merkel tops Forbes list of top 100 powerful women

German chancellor Angela Merkel is the most powerful woman in the world in 2012, according to Forbes magazine.

It’s a bit whimsical, but that’s probably the right call, considering that no one person has more power, probably, to determine whether the eurozone sticks together or falls apart.

Also on the list are several women of important to world politics:

  • U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton (#2),
  • Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff (#3),
  • Indian National Congress Party leader Sonia Gandhi (#6),
  • International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde (#8),
  • Argentine president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (#16),
  • Burmese National League for Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi (#19),
  • Australian prime minister Julia Gillard (#27),
  • Malawi president Joyce Banda (#71),
  • Nigerian finance minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (#80),
  • Liberian president Ellen Johnson Sirleaf (#81), and
  • UAE minister of foreign trade Shiekha Lubna Al Qasimi (#92)

Predictions, questions and thoughts:

  • Where is Danish prime minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt? Robbed!
  • And where is Icelandic prime minister Jóhanna Sigurðardóttir, the world’s first openly lesbian head of government? Also robbed!
  • Josefina never had a chance.
  • Too soon for Pussy Riot, I suppose.
  • Might Parti québécois leader Pauline Marois make it on next year’s list if she wins the Sept. 4 election in Québec and schedules a referendum on Québec’s independence?
  • Next year, Park Geun-hye could well be South Korea’s new president, which would make her automatically top 20, I presume.
  • Also next year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hannelore Kraft become Merkel’s chief opposition.
  • If Silvio Berlusconi makes a comeback in Italy, why not his favorite MP Michaela Biancofiore and the rest of Silvio’s angels?