Tag Archives: democratic left

Greece

ND regains polling momentum against SYRIZA in upcoming Greek election

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As predicted, the upcoming (second) Greek election is increasingly looking like a showdown between the two key figures of the pro-bailout and anti-austerity camps — between Antonis Samaras, the leader of the center-right New Democracy (Νέα Δημοκρατία) and Alexis Tsipras, the leader of the leftist SYRIZA (the Coalition of the Radical Left — Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς).

Polls show that New Democracy may be regaining momentum against SYRIZA, which had jumped into the lead in polls following the election and during the coalition talks that failed to produce a viable government.  Each of the two parties can point to polls showing a lead, with nearly a month to go until Greeks return to the polls.  Both parties are polling over 20% after an election in which no single party won over one-fifth of a historically fragmented electorate.

Both leaders are already sniping at one another in advance of June 17 elections, the second in two months in Greece, amid global concern that the possibility of an anti-bailout government’s election could lead to Greece’s exit from the eurozone (with a fear that the process of ‘de-euroization’ has already begun and could well accelerate — capital flowing out of not just Greek banks, but banks in Spain, Portugal and Italy as well).

Tsipras on Tuesday was in Berlin, after a visit to Paris on Monday with popular leftist leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon (pictured above), with the dual goals of calming fears about a potential SYRIZA-led government (Tsipras does not want Greece to leave the eurozone, but would like to renegotiate the terms of Greece’s bailout and austerity measures, four years into a devastating recession) and also building common cause with European leftists.  Tsipras has couched his electoral success in terms of a wider turn across Europe from austerity towards a more growth-oriented policy, as evidenced by the election of leftist anti-austerity François Hollande in France:

“Greece is a link in a chain. If it breaks it is not just the link that is broken but the whole chain. What people have to understand is that the Greek crisis concerns not just Greece but all European people so a common European solution has to be found,” Tsipras told reporters. Continue reading ND regains polling momentum against SYRIZA in upcoming Greek election →

Greece

June Greek elections now almost certain

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Here’s your Monday update on the Greek coalition talks.

All three of the top party leaders have been unable to form a government, and President Karolos Papoulias, over the weekend, has been unable to bring the top leaders together to join a unity government.

New elections, likely to be held June 17, are now all but certain:

Greece’s biggest anti-bailout party, SYRIZA, defied overtures to join the government Sunday, deepening the impasse. Leader Alexis Tsipras won’t attend a new meeting called by Papoulias Monday for 7:30 p.m., state-run NET TV reported, without saying how it got the information.

“SYRIZA won’t betray the Greek people,” Tsipras said in statements televised on NET TV after the meeting with Papoulias and the leaders of the New Democracy and PASOK parties. “We are being asked to agree to the destruction of Greek society.”

Papoulias spent the day trying to coax the country’s three biggest parties into a coalition after a week of talks failed to deliver on mandates to form a government. If Papoulias’s efforts fail, new elections will need to be called. Monday’s meeting will be with the leaders of two of the three biggest parties, and the head of the smaller Democratic Left party, NET said.

Greece’s political impasse since the inconclusive May 6 election has raised the possibility another vote will have to be held as early as next month, with polls showing that could boost anti-bailout SYRIZA to the top spot. The standoff has reignited concern the country will renege on pledges to cut spending as required by the terms of its two bailouts negotiated since May 2010, and, ultimately, leave the euro area.

Greece

Kouvelis refuses to join unity Greek government without SYRIZA; Samaras attacks Tsipras

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So the latest in the Greek drama over forming a coalition government is vaguely predictable.

Yesterday’s signs of an early breakthrough between PASOK (under the leadership of Evangelos Venizelos) and the Democratic Left (under the leadership of Fotis Kouvelis) crumbled today after it became clear that Kouvelis’s idea of a unity government must include the more radical SYRIZA (under the leadership of Alexis Tsipras).

Any unity government would also have to feature New Democracy (under the leadership of Antonis Samaras), which, as the top vote-winner in Sunday’s election, will hold 108 seats in the Hellenic parliament.

But as I noted yesterday, New Democracy and SYRIZA are simply too far apart in their approaches to the bailout in order to form any viable coalition.

Indeed, if any broad pro-bailout coalition were possible, Samaras would have likely formed it when he had the first opportunity to form a government earlier this week.  If any broad anti-austerity coalition were possible, Tsipras, whose SYRIZA finished a strong second in Sunday’s election would have likely formed it as well.

Meanwhile, Samaras has attacked Tsipras and SYRIZA in a lively forecast of the right’s attack in any future election campaign.  With Sunday’s election behind us, the battle lines are clearly drawn, and a new election will be a clearer showdown between the Samaras view and the Tsipras view — Samaras will run as the champion of austerity, arguing that it’s the only way to guarantee Greece’s continued membership in the eurozone; Tsipras will run as the champion of renegotiating Greece’s position, arguing that the current deal is strangling any chance of economic growth in Greece.

If the talks crumble, as expected, Greece’s president will bring together the top party leaders for one last attempt to implore a national unity government; if that fails, the next option will be new elections in June — polls show that new elections would find Tsipras’s hand strengthen and the anti-austerity left in a much clearer position to form a government.

Greece

Who is Fotis Kouvelis?

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With Fotis Kouvelis, the head of Greece’s Democratic Left (Δημοκρατική Αριστερά), the most moderate of the three vaguely anti-bailout leftist groups to thrive in Sunday’s election, now in discussions with Evangelos Venizelos, the former finance minister and the leader of center-left PASOK, to form a national unity government, the center spotlight of Greek — and European politics — now shines on Kouvelis, who was ranked the most popular party leader throughout the election campaign.

Kouvelis, at 63 years old, is as soft-spoken and understated as his young leftist rival Alexis Tsipras is brash:

Avoiding the fiery rhetoric and bombastic speeches popular with Greek politicians, Kouvelis speaks in a measured tone and is seen as a figure who can restore the country’s dignity.

”Political intensity and the power of a stance or a proposal cannot be found in yelling, but in the content of what you have to say,” Kouvelis told Reuters.

Pledging to ditch austerity policies without jeopardizing Greece’s membership of the euro zone, Kouvelis has successfully lured away former PASOK voters disillusioned with the Socialist party’s support for unpopular wage, spending and pension cuts.

A fixture in Greek politics since the 1980s, he has been a member of parliament since 1989 (except for a brief spell from 1993 to 1996), and served briefly in 1989 as a minister of justice.

Kouvelis formed the Democratic Left in 2010 with fellow members of Synaspismós, the leading party in the SYRIZA group that Tsipras leads, over differences with Tsipras’s more radical opposition to the bailout and Greek budget cuts.  Prior to Sunday’s election, the Democratic Left held 10 seats in the prior Hellenic parliament — four former SYRIZA MPs and six former PASOK MPs who joined the Democratic Left only in March 2012.  On Sunday, the Democratic Left won 19 seats and nearly 7% of the vote.

Kouvelis has walked a tight line throughout the election campaign — he strongly supports Greece’s continued membership in the eurozone and his party’s slogan has been “the responsible left,” and throughout the campaign, he refused to join forces with SYRIZA.  After Sunday’s vote, he also seemed to rule out a coalition with PASOK and the center-right New Democracy as well.  Nonetheless, he has strongly opposed the harsh austerity and other terms mandated by the bailout Greece has received — his program has emphasized the renegotiation of Greece’s bailout, including some debt forgiveness from the European Central Bank.  He also favors stimulus spending to bring Greece out of its current near-depression economic conditions.

If he is serious about joining a coalition with PASOK, the key question will be how far PASOK (and New Democracy, if it joins any such unity coalition) is willing to consider a renegotiation of those terms.

If any such coalition succeeds, Kouvelis will reap the political benefits of pulling the pro-bailout parties into an acknowledgement that the current bailout terms are too harsh, bringing some relief to Greece’s economy and a reprieve from the harshest elements of its austerity program, and restoring some stability to Greece’s politics — for a while — without drawing the international ire that would result from a further debt default or a return to the drachma.

Greece

Venizelos gets the mandate, but new elections still probable in Greece

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UPDATE, 2:45 pm ET: After Venizelos (left) met with Kouvelis (right) earlier today, it appears that Greece is a bit closer to forming a governing coalition, although it remains unclear to me which parties would join such a unity coalition:

“The moment of truth is approaching for everyone,” said Kouvelis, who has so far had a guarded approach to entering a unity government. “I propose the formation of an ecumenical government made up of trustworthy political figures that will reflect and respect the message from the elections.”

Kouvelis, whose appeal seemed to be directed at [SYRIZA] and New Democracy, added that this government should have a specific goal.

“This government’s mission, which will have a specific program and timeframe that will last until the European elections of 2014, will be twofold: Firstly, to keep the country in the European Union and euro and, secondly, to being the gradual disengagement from the [EU-IMF] memorandum.”

Kouvelis had previously indicated his willingness to join a SYRIZA-led coalition, and Venizelos will meet with Tsipras and Samaras on Friday.

Together, PASOK, SYRIZA and the Democratic Left would only command 119 seats, but a coalition of New Democracy, PASOK and the Democratic Left would command 168 seats.  Based on the past 72 hours, I cannot see any unity government that would bring together New Democracy and SYRIZA into the same government, so I think that any Kouvelis-endorsed coalition would include New Democracy and not SYRIZA.

Although Kouvelis has been touted as a potential prime minister, it is hard to see Samaras standing down as prime minister in favor of Kouvelis — it is New Democracy, after all, that would contribute 108 of the 168 seats in such a coalition.

One possibility, perhaps, is that Venizelos is willing to pull PASOK further away from its pro-bailout position and from its former caolition partner, New Democracy.  If the 33 seats from the center-right, but anti-bailout Independent Greeks are somehow in play: a PASOK-SYRIZA-Democratic Left-Independent Greeks coalition would carry 152 seats.

The supposed breakthrough comes as the first post-election poll shows that SYRIZA would win a second vote in June with 27.7% to just 20.3% for New Democracy and with PASOK languishing in third place at 12.6%.  With SYRIZA’s popularity climbing, Venizelos and Kouvelis know that it will come largely at the expense of their own parties, which may be driving them toward a coalition government, thereby avoiding new elections.

Stay tuned!

Continue reading Venizelos gets the mandate, but new elections still probable in Greece →

Greece

Expect a Samaris / Tsipras showdown if Greece holds new June elections

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Alexis Tsipras, the leader of the leftist SYRIZA (the Coalition of the Radical Left — Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς) has not yet concluded that he cannot form a government, but it seems increasingly unlikely.  If he fails, Evangelos Venizelos, the former finance minister and leader of PASOK (Panhellenic Socialist Movement – Πανελλήνιο Σοσιαλιστικό Κίνημα) will yet have an opportunity to form a coalition.  If Venizelos fails, Greece’s leaders will have one last opportunity to form a ‘national unity’ government.

All things being equal, however, as neither the pro-bailout nor the anti-bailout forces seem to be able to summon enough strength to form a government, it certainly looks exceedingly likely that Greek voters will go to the polls again in June.

So who wins and who loses in the event of a second election? Continue reading Expect a Samaris / Tsipras showdown if Greece holds new June elections →

Greece

Greek election results: Samaras and ND to have first chance to form government

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A day after an election that scrambled Greek — and potentially, European — politics, party leaders are surveying the new reality of Greek parliamentary politics in search of a workable governing coalition.

The center-right New Democracy (Νέα Δημοκρατία), which finished in first place, and which accordingly won the greatest number of seats in the Hellenic Parliament.  Under Greece’s new election law, 250 seats are distributed by proportional representation, while an additional 50 seats are awarded to the party with the highest support — even if, as in this election, the “winner” gets less than 19% of the total votes cast.

Nonetheless, even with its skewed number of seats, New Democracy is projected to hold just 108 seats, far below what it would need to form a government.   Accordingly, ND leader Antonis Samaras will have the first shot of forming a coalition — and will attempt today to build one among pro-euro and pro-bailout parties. Continue reading Greek election results: Samaras and ND to have first chance to form government →

Greece

Greek election results: New Democracy leads, far-left SYRIZA in second, PASOK in third

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As French voters celebrate the election of a new president in leftist François Hollande, Greek voters returned a muddier verdict in its own election on Sunday, with returns that show the most fragmented Greek electorate in Greece’s postwar history, as voters have abandoned both of Greece’s two major parties, in a rebuke of the bailout that has resulted in savage budget cuts and a fiercely depressed economy.

As of 11 p.m. Greek time, with 40.53% of the votes tallied, the results are as follows:

The center-right New Democracy (Νέα Δημοκρατία) has won 20.29% of the vote, and will take an estimated 112 seats in the Hellenic parliament. New Democracy had been predicted to take the largest share of the vote, which results in an automatic “bonus” of 50 seats — the remaining 250 seats are apportioned to all parties (with over 3% support) on the basis of proportional representation.

The far-left SYRIZA (the Coalition of the Radical Left — Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς) has won 15.86% of the vote, and will take 49 seats.  SYRIZA has done better than expected, pushing the center-left PASOK (Panhellenic Socialist Movement — Πανελλήνιο Σοσιαλιστικό Κίνημα) into third place with just 13.98%, with a predicted 43 seats.

The anti-austerity center-right Independent Greeks, a splinter group from New Democracy, has won 10.37%, with predicted 32 seats.  KKE (the Greek Communist Party) has won 8.33%, with 25 predicted seats.  The fascist, nationalistic right Golden Dawn party has won 6.85% and will enter parliament with 21 seats, the first time it will be represented in parliament since 1974.

The far-left Democratic Left, itself a splinter group of SYRIZA, has won just 5.99% and is projected to win 18 seats.

With just 2.89%, the populist Orthodox LAOS appeared to have fallen short of the 3% threshold for representation in Greece’s parliament.  The same fate appeared to be in store for the Ecologist Greens, which took just 2.81%.

So what does all of this mean for Greece going forward? Continue reading Greek election results: New Democracy leads, far-left SYRIZA in second, PASOK in third →

Greece

A guide to potential Greek coalitions (or, how we might end up with a second election)

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Although Greek elections have only this week been set for May 6, speculation is already rising that the vote will result in no viable coalition.

The two traditional parties of Greek politics since 1974 have been the center-right’s New Democracy (Νέα Δημοκρατία) and the center-left’s Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Πανελλήνιο Σοσιαλιστικό Κίνημα), or PASOK.  But polls leading up to the legislative elections, however, show that the Greek two-party system appears to have all but broken down in the face of voter disgust with both New Democracy and PASOK, which both supported the ‘troika’ bailout from the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund, along with the accompanying reforms and budget cuts, none of which has been popular among Greek voters, to put it mildly.

Polls also suggest that no single party commands much over 20% in support and accordingly, up to nine discrete political parties could enter the Hellenic Parliament after May 6.  That includes New Democracy and PASOK, but also KKE (the Greek Communist Party), SYRIZA (the Coalition of the Radical Left), the Democratic Left, the Ecologist Greens, the Independent Greeks (a center-right anti-austerity group), Golden Dawn (a neo-fascist, neo-nazi party) and LAOS (a right-wing Orthodox party) — the Greek electoral process provides that any party with over 3% of the national vote will be represented with seats.

But what are the potential combinations of coalitions?  And more to the point, what is the likelihood that any such coalition can come to agreement to form a government? Continue reading A guide to potential Greek coalitions (or, how we might end up with a second election) →