Daily Archives: October 26, 2012

Ukraine

Klychko hopes to deliver knockout punch in Ukrainian election

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As Ukraine’s elections approach this Sunday, WBC heavyweight Vitaliy Klychko is hoping he can deliver a terminal blow to the government of president Viktor Yanukovych.

He’s in many ways the latest beta version of Ukraine’s opposition — after the disenchantment with former president Viktor Yushchenko, whose presidency from 2005 to 2010 degenerated into a splintered majority that failed to enact the promise of 2004’s ‘Orange Revolution,’ and after the imprisonment of former presidential candidate Yulia Tymoshenko, jailed on the politically-motivated charge of negotiating too unfavorable of a contract with Russia on behalf of Ukraine during the 2009 natural gas crisis (even though Russia had essentially turned off the gas to Ukraine and its neighbors), the newest kid on the block is Klychko, the reigning heavyweight world champion.

Klychko heads a new upstart opposition party,  the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (UDAR, Український демократичний альянс за реформи) that has gained the most momentum throughout the campaign — the latest poll, heading into Sunday’s election, shows UDAR with 17.9%, versus only 23.0% for Yanukovych’s relatively unpopular pro-Russian Party of Regions (Партія регіонів) based in eastern Ukraine.

UDAR also means ‘punch’ in Ukrainian — get it? Vote for the boxer!

Within western and central Ukraine, UDAR will be competing for the more reformist pro-European vote with the center-right ‘All Ukrainian Union — Fatherland’ party (Всеукраїнське об’єднання “Батьківщина, Batkivshchyna), which wins 16.9%, although its leader Yulia Tymoshenko remains imprisoned over what most observes believe are politically-motivated charges.  Tymoshenko, who parted ways with her one-time ally Yushchenko, only narrowly lost the 2010 president election to Yanukovych.

Ukraine’s Communist Party (Комуністична партія України), which dates back to the Ukrainian branch of the Soviet Communist Party and which has backed Yanukovych in the past, won 12.8% in the latest poll.

Klychko has ruled out any coalition with Yanukovych — he is firmly in favor of liberalization and economic development and in favor of Ukraine’s continued turn toward the EU and toward further integration with NATO as well.  As someone who’s made his fortune as a boxer on the world stage, many Ukrainians see him as less likely to succumb to the temptation for corruption in the less-than-pristine environment of Ukrainian politics.

Klychko entered electoral politics with a run for mayor of Kiev in 2008 — he lost that race to Leonid Chernovetskyi, but placed a strong second and won a seat on the Kiev city council.  It probably made no difference, however, as Yanukovych essentially pushed a law through Ukraine’s parliament in 2010 to allow the president to appoint the city administrator directly; Yanukovych dismissed Chernovetskyi and named a loyalist in his place.

Yanukovych is hoping to take advantage of the split in this weekend’s elections for the 450 members of the unicameral parliament, the Verkhovna Rada.  Unlike in 2007 parliamentary elections, when all seats were determined by proportional representation, only half of the seats will be elected by proportional representation (parties with over 5% support will be awarded a share of those seats).  There are already doubts about how free and fair the elections will be, amid media suppression, political-based assaults and outright bribery, with Yanukovych’s government deploying state resources in the furtherance of winning the election. At stake is Ukraine’s potential entry to the European Union — a strong win by Yanukovych and his allies would pull Ukraine ever closer to Russia and further away from possible EU accession.  Yanukovych and his family enjoy considerable control over much of the country’s economy.

The other half will be elected directly in districts — a significant change from the last elections in 2007, which were fully determined by proportional representation, and which Yanukovych could win if UDAR and Batkivshchyna split too much of the opposition vote in the single-district constituencies.  Although UDAR and Batkivshchyna have agreed on a mutual support pact to withdraw certain candidates in favor of a united opposition candidate, but the two parties are still apparently fielding their own candidates in some of the more competitive districts in Kiev.

So while in many ways Klychko is essentially Reformer 3.0 in the mould of Yushchenko and Tymoshenko, and he seems to have the most momentum just two days before Ukrainians vote, the broader fear is that the pro-European opposition based in the western part of the country will splinter, allowing Yanukovych to consolidate power and pull Ukraine in a less democratic direction, toward Russia and away from Europe.  Continue reading Klychko hopes to deliver knockout punch in Ukrainian election →

Italy

Berlusconi convicted of tax fraud, sentenced to four years in prison

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It took ten years, but former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi was convicted today of tax fraud and sentenced to four year in prison (although reduced to just one year under a 2006 amnesty law).

Italy’s appeals process is lengthy and complex, so there’s a very real possibility that Berlusconi’s conviction, already ten years in the making, will be overturned.  Although today’s tax fraud conviction is more serious than Berlusconi’s prior convictions, he’s evaded final justice in Italy before.  A perjury conviction in 1990 was set aside under a prior amnesty law and a conviction for illegal financing Berlusconi’s political party in 1997 was set aside after the statute of limitations expired before Berlusconi had exhausted his appeals.

For today, it seems very likely that the conviction will prevent Berlusconi from reversing course on his announcement, made earlier this week, that he will not seek to lead Italy’s center-right into the next general election, expected in April 2013.  It was thought that Berlusconi has enough money and control over Italy’s media to reverse his decision — and conceivably still could, although I think it’s now virtually impossible for Berlusconi to make anything like a successful comeback in time for 2013.

In addition to the tax fraud trial, Berlusconi remains in the crosshairs of various Italian prosecutors, including for abuse of power charges, such as the use of state flights for personal use and for printing wiretapped conversations.  Most sensationally, though, Berlusconi is being investigated for prostitution charges stemming from a sexual relationship with a Moroccan teenager, named ‘Ruby Rubacouri’ in the Italian media.  Generally, Berlusconi has become a laughingstock for the allegations of ‘bunga, bunga‘ parties while in office lavished on Italian VIPs featuring orgies with young women.

Ironically, notwithstanding the energy and time that Berlusconi’s various governments spent passing immunity laws designed to shield Berlusconi and his allies from prosecution in Italian courts, the 2006 amnesty law that would reduce Berlusconi’s sentence to just one year was passed by the center-right government of former prime minister Romano Prodi.

In brief, Berlusconi has been convicted for inflating the costs of certain TV rights by his media company, Mediaset, in order to offset his tax bill.  Essentially, at the time Berlusconi created his media empire in the late 1970s and 1980s, Italy featured only public television channels nation-wide.  In building his media empire, Berlusconi bought local stations and broadcast simultaneous content, essentially cobbling together many local channels with synchronized programming, thereby establishing Italy’s first private television networks.

As such, Berlusconi commanded an incredible amount of control over Italy’s media, from his first successful campaign in 1994, through today.

With the 2013 Italian election approaching, Berlusconi’s conviction is yet another blow for the Italian center-right.  His apparent withdrawal from active participation in Italian politics has made the outcome of those elections incredibly uncertain, with most Italians satisfied with the current government headed by technocratic reformer Mario Monti, who’s said he won’t run on his own behalf in the upcoming elections.  Berlusconi has hinted he might support the continuation of Monti’s government for a full term if the 2013 elections are inconclusive, and certainly most of Italy’s business elite prefer Monti to Berlusconi or any of the various leftist or populist alternatives. Continue reading Berlusconi convicted of tax fraud, sentenced to four years in prison →