Tag Archives: venizelos

Greece

Expect a Samaris / Tsipras showdown if Greece holds new June elections

3 Comments

Alexis Tsipras, the leader of the leftist SYRIZA (the Coalition of the Radical Left — Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς) has not yet concluded that he cannot form a government, but it seems increasingly unlikely.  If he fails, Evangelos Venizelos, the former finance minister and leader of PASOK (Panhellenic Socialist Movement – Πανελλήνιο Σοσιαλιστικό Κίνημα) will yet have an opportunity to form a coalition.  If Venizelos fails, Greece’s leaders will have one last opportunity to form a ‘national unity’ government.

All things being equal, however, as neither the pro-bailout nor the anti-bailout forces seem to be able to summon enough strength to form a government, it certainly looks exceedingly likely that Greek voters will go to the polls again in June.

So who wins and who loses in the event of a second election? Continue reading Expect a Samaris / Tsipras showdown if Greece holds new June elections →

Greece

Greek election results: Samaras and ND to have first chance to form government

7 Comments

A day after an election that scrambled Greek — and potentially, European — politics, party leaders are surveying the new reality of Greek parliamentary politics in search of a workable governing coalition.

The center-right New Democracy (Νέα Δημοκρατία), which finished in first place, and which accordingly won the greatest number of seats in the Hellenic Parliament.  Under Greece’s new election law, 250 seats are distributed by proportional representation, while an additional 50 seats are awarded to the party with the highest support — even if, as in this election, the “winner” gets less than 19% of the total votes cast.

Nonetheless, even with its skewed number of seats, New Democracy is projected to hold just 108 seats, far below what it would need to form a government.   Accordingly, ND leader Antonis Samaras will have the first shot of forming a coalition — and will attempt today to build one among pro-euro and pro-bailout parties. Continue reading Greek election results: Samaras and ND to have first chance to form government →

Greece

Greek election results: New Democracy leads, far-left SYRIZA in second, PASOK in third

4 Comments

As French voters celebrate the election of a new president in leftist François Hollande, Greek voters returned a muddier verdict in its own election on Sunday, with returns that show the most fragmented Greek electorate in Greece’s postwar history, as voters have abandoned both of Greece’s two major parties, in a rebuke of the bailout that has resulted in savage budget cuts and a fiercely depressed economy.

As of 11 p.m. Greek time, with 40.53% of the votes tallied, the results are as follows:

The center-right New Democracy (Νέα Δημοκρατία) has won 20.29% of the vote, and will take an estimated 112 seats in the Hellenic parliament. New Democracy had been predicted to take the largest share of the vote, which results in an automatic “bonus” of 50 seats — the remaining 250 seats are apportioned to all parties (with over 3% support) on the basis of proportional representation.

The far-left SYRIZA (the Coalition of the Radical Left — Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς) has won 15.86% of the vote, and will take 49 seats.  SYRIZA has done better than expected, pushing the center-left PASOK (Panhellenic Socialist Movement — Πανελλήνιο Σοσιαλιστικό Κίνημα) into third place with just 13.98%, with a predicted 43 seats.

The anti-austerity center-right Independent Greeks, a splinter group from New Democracy, has won 10.37%, with predicted 32 seats.  KKE (the Greek Communist Party) has won 8.33%, with 25 predicted seats.  The fascist, nationalistic right Golden Dawn party has won 6.85% and will enter parliament with 21 seats, the first time it will be represented in parliament since 1974.

The far-left Democratic Left, itself a splinter group of SYRIZA, has won just 5.99% and is projected to win 18 seats.

With just 2.89%, the populist Orthodox LAOS appeared to have fallen short of the 3% threshold for representation in Greece’s parliament.  The same fate appeared to be in store for the Ecologist Greens, which took just 2.81%.

So what does all of this mean for Greece going forward? Continue reading Greek election results: New Democracy leads, far-left SYRIZA in second, PASOK in third →

Greece

A guide to potential Greek coalitions (or, how we might end up with a second election)

33 Comments

Although Greek elections have only this week been set for May 6, speculation is already rising that the vote will result in no viable coalition.

The two traditional parties of Greek politics since 1974 have been the center-right’s New Democracy (Νέα Δημοκρατία) and the center-left’s Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Πανελλήνιο Σοσιαλιστικό Κίνημα), or PASOK.  But polls leading up to the legislative elections, however, show that the Greek two-party system appears to have all but broken down in the face of voter disgust with both New Democracy and PASOK, which both supported the ‘troika’ bailout from the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund, along with the accompanying reforms and budget cuts, none of which has been popular among Greek voters, to put it mildly.

Polls also suggest that no single party commands much over 20% in support and accordingly, up to nine discrete political parties could enter the Hellenic Parliament after May 6.  That includes New Democracy and PASOK, but also KKE (the Greek Communist Party), SYRIZA (the Coalition of the Radical Left), the Democratic Left, the Ecologist Greens, the Independent Greeks (a center-right anti-austerity group), Golden Dawn (a neo-fascist, neo-nazi party) and LAOS (a right-wing Orthodox party) — the Greek electoral process provides that any party with over 3% of the national vote will be represented with seats.

But what are the potential combinations of coalitions?  And more to the point, what is the likelihood that any such coalition can come to agreement to form a government? Continue reading A guide to potential Greek coalitions (or, how we might end up with a second election) →

Greece

Greek election date set for May 6

2 Comments

We (finally) have a date for the Greek parliamentary elections: May 6.

Under the Greek election system, which will be conducted under a new 2007 electoral law, 250 of the 300 seats in the Hellenic Parliament will be awarded on the basis of proportional representation (only if the national tally exceeds 3% of the total vote, however).  The additional 50 seats will be awarded to the party that wins the leading number of votes.

Currently, the top two vote-winners in polls are Greece’s two longtime parties: New Democracy (Νέα Δημοκρατία), which has led most polls going into the vote with just over 20% of likely voters, and PASOK (the Panhellenic Socialist Movement, or Πανελλήνιο Σοσιαλιστικό Κίνημα), which polls anywhere from 12% to 16% under its new leader, former finance minister Evangelos Venizelos. 

Both PASOK and New Democracy support the current round of bailouts from the ‘troika’ of the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund, including regulatory reforms and controversial austerity measures that have led to widespread cuts in public spending, strong disapproval from the Greek electorate and have helped stall Greek GDP growth.  Together, PASOK and New Democracy approved the appointment of current prime minister Lucas Papademos, who succeeded former PASOK prime minister George Papandreou (who will nonetheless be standing for election on May 6 in Achaia). 

Accordingly, both PASOK and New Democracy are at near-record levels of unpopularity heading into the May 6 election.

The latest poll from Public Issue, however, shows New Democracy with just 19% support and PASOK with 14.5%, which is too little to form a coalition — any party (or parties) need to win between 36% and 39% of the total vote to command enough seats to govern.  Taken together, the 33.5% represents the lowest total of the two of any poll to date.

Nonetheless, at least four anti-bailout parties have also emerged with anywhere between 8% and 12% of the vote, making it likely that both ND and PASOK will receive traditionally lower support than ever.  The KKE, Greece’s longtime Communist Party, wins 11%, SYRIZA, a coalition of the Radical Left no longer associated with the KKE, wins 13%, DIMAR — the “Democratic Left,” a splinter group from SYRIZA, wins 12%.  Meanwhile, the Independent Greeks, an anti-austerity group that splintered from New Democracy, also wins 11%.  The neo-fascist Golden Dawn polled 5% and each of the Ecologist Greens and the right-wing Popular Orthodox Rally polled 3%.

Greece

PASOK gets post-Venizelos polling bounce

2 Comments

In the wake of anointing former Greek finance minister Evangelos Venizelos as its new leader, the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Πανελλήνιο Σοσιαλιστικό Κίνημα), or “PASOK” (ΠΑΣΟΚ in Greek) has received a small, but noticeable, bounce in the latest polls in advance of this spring’s legislative elections.

PASOK receives 15.5% to 22.5% for the traditionally center-right New Democracy party (Νέα Δημοκρατία).

Meanwhile, the KKE (Greece’s Communist party) would win 12%, SYRIZA (the Coalition of the Radical Left) would win another 12.5%, and the new DIMAR (Democratic Left) would also win 12%.  A new anti-austerity right-wing party, the Independent Greeks, would win 8.5%.

LAOS (the right-wing Popular Orthodox Rally) would take just 2%, the neo-fascist Golden Dawn takes 5% and the Ecologist Green party takes 3%.

Both of Venizelos and ND leader Antonis Samaras had nearly identical 30% favorability and 30% unfavorability ratings.  Fotis Kouvelis, the leader of the Democratic Left, remained the most popular of the leaders with just over 50% favorability.

It’s shaping up as an odd election in that the traditional parties of the right (ND) and the left (PASOK) have converged in their positions — ND presided over the initial 2008 global financial crisis and PASOK presided over the onset of the 2010 sovereign debt crisis and subsequent waves of budget cuts, notwithstanding its traditional character as a socialist party.

As such, and especially following the appointment of Lucas Papademos as interim prime minister in November 2011 with the support of both ND and PASOK, both parties are pregnant with supporting the harsh austerity terms that have conditioned Greece’s recent bailouts:

[Translated from the original Greek]: In other words, the two (former) major parties in power have come so close by ideological (neoliberal) view and policy (co-ruling) practice, they now appear as “one flesh.”

Most commentators assume that the ND will win the elections with a minority or in a more formal ‘grand’ coalition with PASOK, thereby making permanent the informal coalition cobbled together to appoint Papademos.  Together, PASOK and the ND — the “bailout” parties — win just 38% of the vote. Continue reading PASOK gets post-Venizelos polling bounce →

Greece

Evangelos Venizelos profile

Leave a comment

Yannis Koutsomitis (follow him on Twitter @YanniKouts for all matters Greek) directs us to this profile of Evangelos Venizelos today, who’s the newly elected leader of the center-left Pasok party in Greece in advance of elections this spring.

The profile provides some background on the long-time rivalry between Venizelos and former prime minister George Papandreou:

Venizelos’ ill-fated challenge to Papandreou for the Pasok leadership in 2007, after Pasok was defeated by New Democracy, opened the long, winding road to the March 18 party leadership elections.
That the two men disliked each other deeply was plainly apparent, if for nothing else because of Venizelos’ withering criticism in 2007 of Papandreou’s intellectual and political capabilities. Venizelos seemed to view Papandreou – whose father and Pasok founder Andreas Papandreou had launched the minister’s career by appointing him government spokesman – as the princely dauphin whose hereditary right to the throne blocked his own great ambitions.

Greece

What will happen in this spring’s Greek elections?

1 Comment

Evangelos Venizelos, formerly the beleaguered finance minister of what remains of the Greek government, fresh off a negotiation of Greece’s second bailout (including an orderly debt writedown deal with private creditors), won the uncontested leadership of Greece’s main center-left party Sunday, in advance of legislative elections expected to occur in late April or early May.

Although he had only served as finance minister since June 2011, Venizelos quickly became battle-tested in having faced down the “troika” of the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank.  If you can negotiate against Angela Merkel, Christine Lagarde and who-knows-how-many creditors, and you can emerge with Greece remaining intact, however delicately, perhaps you have a decent shot are rehabilitating the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Πανελλήνιο Σοσιαλιστικό Κίνημα), or “PASOK” (ΠΑΣΟΚ in Greek).

But if Greece’s economy is in shambles, its politics are perhaps in even worse shape — no one thinks Venizelos’s new job will be any easier.

A new poll today shows PASOK with just 12.5% support (down from the 44% it received in the 2009 elections), and Greece’s center-right New Democracy party (Νέα Δημοκρατία) with just 22.5% support (down from 33.5% that it received in the 2009 elections).

Former minister of culture Antonis Samaris will lead New Democracy into the election, which will be only the second Greek election that neither a Papandreou nor a Karamanlis will lead one of the major parties, at least since Greece returned to democracy in 1974.

Continue reading What will happen in this spring’s Greek elections? →