First Past the Post: October 18

Bolivian president Evo Morales says Europe and the United States are in a slump because they’re no longer pillaging Latin America. (The Great Stagnation!) [Spanish]

Somalia’s new parliament has elected former businessman Abdi Farah Shirdon as the new prime minister.

Foreign Policy looks at the death of Cambodia’s king.

Italian prime minister Mario Monti has passed an anti-graft law.

Georgia’s new top politician Bidzina Ivanishvili will continue to push for NATO membership.

Angola launches a sovereign wealth fund.

In his first salvo against German chancellor Angela Merkel, SPD chancellor candidate Peer Steinbrück is criticizing her for being insufficiently pro-Europe.

Le Figaro gives you the Merkel vs. François Hollande story in advance of the latest EU summit. [French]

Argentina’s La Nacion interviews former Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva [Spanish]

What to make of Cuba’s lightening of travel restrictions?

Controversy over the first abortion clinic in Ireland and/or Northern Ireland, which opened this week in Belfast.

Der Speigel looks at the Chinese transition.

Former Lebananese prime minister Saad Hariri accuses Hezbollah of fighting on behalf of Syrian president Bashar Assad.

Former Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert and Tzipi Livni, his successor as Kadima leader pledge not to run against one another in the January elections — if they run.

Is former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd plotting a comeback once again against current prime minister Julia Gillard?

Iceland continues to crowd source constitutional reform with six-question referendum

Iceland is a tiny country of just barely more than 300,000 people, but it took a famously outsized role in the earliest stages of the 2008 financial crisis when all three of its private banks failed in rapid succession. 

Now, Icelandic voters will go to the polls this Saturday for a six-question referendum to determine whether to reform the country’s constitution and, if so, how.

In contrast to Ireland, where the government nationalized and assumed the debts of its failing banks, Iceland simply allowed its banks to fail.  Although growth has resumed in Iceland (3% in 2011) and unemployment is now falling (hovering at around 6.7%), the Icelandic economy remains quite subdued in contrast from the heady days when Reykjavík was angling to become one of Europe’s investment banking capitals.

In the wake of that crisis, Icelanders have weighed many different reforms, ranging from joining the European Union to joining the eurozone to adopting Canada’s dollar as its currency.  The former prime minister, Geir Haarde, faced charges in front of a special session of the Alþingi (Iceland’s parliament and, given its formation in AD 930, the oldest parliament in world history), and was convicted on one minor charge, although he has faced no formal punishment, aside from widespread disapproval from Iceland’s citizens.

In the same manner, the constitutional reform process, which culminates in the October 20 referendum, also emerged from the crisis.  Reform was one of the key promises made by the broadly leftist coalition under prime minister Jóhanna Sigurðardóttir that took power in 2009 — the coalition includes the Social Democratic Alliance (Samfylkingin), the Left-Green Movement (Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð), the Progressive Party (Framsóknarflokkurinn) and other small parties.  The 2009 election, which followed riots in the typically tranquil island nation, saw the once-dominant Independence Party (Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn) kicked out of power after 18 years in government.

As such, a Constitutional Council of 25 Icelandic citizens has been working on proposals for constitutional reform — including by soliciting input on social media — and it presented a draft constitution to the Alþingi in 2011, which voted to refer the draft constitution to the advisory referendum to be held Saturday.  The constitution would replace the version adopted in 1944 when the country voted to become independent from Denmark.  It would essentially perpetuate the current government structure that includes a largely ceremonial president, a prime minster who heads the government and a president of the Alþingi, but enact other reforms.

Several of the key issues include the removal of the Lutheran Church as the ‘state church’ of Iceland, the addition of more direct democracy rights, the addition of more information rights for citizens, and the inclusion of a provision that would strengthen state control over natural resources not currently under private ownership.

The new constitution is not without controversy — Iceland’s Supreme Court initially invalidated the election of the 25 individuals who form the Constitutional Council, although the Alþingi ultimately upheld their election.  Furthermore, the opposition center-right Independence Party voted against the draft constitution when presented to the Alþingi, and the newly reelected president, Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson, who has served as president since 1996, opposes the constitutional changes because he says they do not garner support from across the political spectrum.  Continue reading Iceland continues to crowd source constitutional reform with six-question referendum

Economy and budget woes, not regional independence, mark Galicia’s election campaigns

Galicia, this Sunday, joins Euskadi (i.e., the Basque Country) in holding regional elections, each of which will have national significance for the center-right government of prime minister Mariano Rajoy.

But unlike in Euskadi and especially in the upcoming November elections in Catalunya, the election in Galicia isn’t about the increasingly polarized fight over regional autonomy and independence, but about the budget priorities of the national and Galician government at a time of prolonged economic duress.

In Galicia, Rajoy’s home region, polls have consistently shown that the center-right government of Galician president Alberto Núñez Feijóo (pictured above) will win by law the largest share of the vote, although it will need to win an absolute majority of the 75 seats in the Parlamento de Galicia in order to continue governing Galicia — the difference between 37 seats and 38 seats could mean the difference between government and opposition.

Since Feijóo announced the early elections last month, polling has shown remarkably stable support for Feijóo’s party, the Partido Popular de Galicia (PPdeG, the People’s Party of Galicia), the Galician branch of Rajoy’s own Partido Popular (PP, People’s Party).

But if the PPdeG wins less than 38 seats on Sunday, the three opposition parties could unite to form a leftist coalition.

For example, the center-left Partido dos Socialistas de Galicia (PSdeG-PSOE, Socialist Party of Galicia), the Galician version of the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE, Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party) and the nationalist Bloque Nacionalista Galego (BNG, the Galician Nationalist Bloc), a nationalist Galician party, which also tilts to the left, formed a narrow one-seat governing coalition from 2005 to 2009.  That coalition was Galicia’s first center-left government since the normalization of democratic politics in Spain in the early 1980s.

In addition, the Esquerda Unida-Izquierda Unida (EU-IU, the United Left), the regional variation of the stridently leftist Izquierda Unida (IU, United Left), essentially the remnants of Spain’s communist party, looks set to win its first seats ever in Galicia, reflecting a nationwide resurgence for the radical left in the wake of four years of economic depression, unemployment and increasingly stringent budget cuts from governments of both the center-left and center-right.

As such, the Galician election is the first major electoral test for Rajoy’s government, which is already unpopular in its first year after passing increasingly severe austerity measures.  If Feijóo loses the election, it will an incredible embarrassment, given that it’s Rajoy’s home base (he once served in the Galician parliament) and Galicia has long been a traditional center-right stronghold in Spain.

In some ways, the Galician election is for Rajoy and the PP what the earlier March 2012 regional elections in the left-leaning Andalucía region of southern Spain were for the PSOE.  In that election, the PP marked its best performance yet — winning three more seats than the PSOE.  Although the PSOE continues to govern in coalition with the Andalucian version of the United Left, and the PP did not win an absolute majority of seats, as some had predicted, it marked a low point for the PSOE in what should be its traditional stronghold. Continue reading Economy and budget woes, not regional independence, mark Galicia’s election campaigns