Peña Nieto holds on… for now



With the formal campaign for Mexico’s president yet to begin, a new poll in the Mexican presidential race shows that PRI candidate Enrique Peña Nieto remains the frontrunner with 39% of the vote to 24% for PAN candidate Josefina Vázquez Mota and 18% for PRD candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, with 19% undecided.  

The poll shows some movement toward Vázquez Mota and some very modest movement to López Obrador.

Vázquez Mota made history last month by becoming the first female candidate nominated by a major party for president in Mexico.  The poll shows that while Vázquez Mota has made some modest gains since her nomination, she will have to make much stronger inroads between now and the July 1 vote.  Alternatively, the poll shows that while Peña Nieto remains the favorite in the race, he is no longer the overwhelming favorite that he appeared to be throughout much of 2011.

The race for the Cámara de Diputados (Mexican chamber of deputies) showed similar trends: 32% for the PRI, 22% for the PAN and 18% for the PRD. All 500 members of the Cámara de Diputados will be elected in the July 1 election, along with all 128 members of Mexico’s Senate. Deputies are elected for three-year terms, while Senators and the President are elected to six-year terms. In each case, incumbents are not allowed to run for reelection.

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