Category Archives: Venezuela

Venezuela

Chávez officially names Maduro as anointed successor

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Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez, only two months after winning reelection against his strongest opponent in 13 years in office, appears to have taken a turn for the worse in his ongoing struggle with cancer, has returned to Cuba for surgery. 

Before leaving, however, he indicated his express preference for his successor — for the first time — in the event that his health declines terminally.  That’s as close as any indication that Venezuelans have received from Chávez that he is battling terminal cancer, in a hasty address to the nation late Saturday night:

Unfortunately, comprehensive tests (performed in Cuba) found the presence, in the same area (previously) affected, of malignant (cancerous) cells. It has been decided that it is absolutely necessary and essential to undergo further surgery. This should happen in the coming days. Doctors even recommended performing the surgery yesterday (Friday) or this weekend at the latest.

Not surprisingly, Chávez anointed Nicolás Maduro (pictured above, left, with Chávez) as his favored successor, expressing openly what he had indicated implicitly in October when he elevated Maduro, formerly foreign minister, to become Venezuela’s new vice president.

Maduro, a former bus driver and trade unionist, has been part of Chávez’s ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV, or United Socialist Party of Venezuela) since its foundation, and he was by Chávez’s side in 1998 when the PSUV first won power.  He was a member of Venezuela’s parliament until 2006, serving as speaker from 2005 to 2006, when he was named as Chávez’s foreign minister.  As such, he’s a fairly well-known figure to Venezuela’s key allies and opponents alike, including China, the United States and Cuba, although observers are cautiously optimistic he would be a more moderate leader, more in the mould of former Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva than Chávez.

Chávez is set to be inaugurated for his fourth term on January 10 — if he were to die during his third term, Maduro would take over as president until January 10.  If Chávez dies after reelection, Diosdado Cabello, the speaker of the National Assembly, would take over temporarily while new elections are organized.  Under Venezuelan law, a new presidential election would be required within 30 days of Chávez’s death or resignation during the first four years of his term (which is set to run for six years, through 2019).  Chávez’s announcement on Saturday makes it very likely that, despite Cabello’s presidential ambitions, Maduro would likely lead the PSUV in any such presidential election in the near future.

Venezuelans return to the polls on December 16 to vote for regional governments, including in Miranda state, where Chávez’s one-time challenger Henrique Capriles is facing a strong challenge from Maduro’s predecessor as vice president, Elías Jaua.

Capriles won 45% of the vote nationally against Chávez in October as the leader of the opposition coalition, Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (MUD).  If Capriles wins on Sunday in Miranda state, he will be well placed to compete in any future presidential election against Maduro.

Venezuela

In naming Maduro as new VP, Chávez indicates preference for successor

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Fresh off his reelection after nearly a year-long and tough-fought election campaign against Henrique Capriles, Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez yesterday named Nicolás Maduro as his vice president.

The move clearly establishes Maduro as a favorite successor for a president who’s also over the past year received treatment abroad for cancer and whose new presidential term runs fully until January 2019.

As such, one of the questions looming over Sunday’s election was whether Chávez would even survive until the election (he did, of course), and if so, whether he could groom a successor who would both stand on his own among the Venezuelan people as a champion of chavismo after Chávez’s death (or retirement) and whether the various factions of Chávez’s ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV, or United Socialist Party of Venezuela).

Maduro himself is a former bus driver and trade unionist (unofficially, however, as trade unions were not permitted in the 1970s and 1980s), and became politically active on the Venezuelan left.  He helped found the PSUV and its predecessor movement, he was a key aide in Chávez’s winning election campaign in 1998 and was elected that year to the Chamber of Deputies (which preceded today’s National Assembly, which was introduced under Chávez’s 1999 constitution) and has been a member of the National Assembly thereafter, serving as the speaker from 2005 to 2006.  Since 2006, Maduro has served as Chávez’s foreign minister, and has been generally known as a loyal, but moderate, member of Chávez’s inner circle.

A very juicy (and perhaps wine-soaked) internal email from the private intelligence group Stratfor from 2011 leaked by Wikileaks earlier this year pinpointed Maduro as the likeliest candidate:

Maduro is loyal as a dog to Chavez. (the source knows Maduro personally, from the days that Maduro was a driver of the metro bus.) At the same time, maduro is seen as the most pragmatic in the regime. If Chavez’s health deteriorates significantly before the scheduled Oct 2012 elections, expect him to proclaim Maduro as his successor in one way or another. You can already see him propping up Maduro in a lot of ways. This is less risky than Chavez going through with elections, winning, suddenly dying and then a power struggle among the Chavistas breaking out. It will be much harder in this latter scenario for Maduro to assert himself against rival Chavistas like Diosdado Cabello, Rafiel Ramirez, etc.

Maduro is seen as more of a Lula candidate. He has a following, he has charisma, but he’s also a balancer. He’s the kind of guy that would open up to the US and keep tight with everyone else, but that still makes Iran nervous. The source seems to think that Obama in his second term would open up to Maduro (and this is something that he is actively working on.)

The e-mail claims that both Russia and China — and possibly Cuba — support Maduro as the preferred successor to Chávez.  Sure enough, Maduro has true roots in the movement for social progress that represents the best of what the Chávez regime has accomplished since 1998, and he has sufficient charisma to carry forward that project in the 2018 election, and sufficient moderation to be a calming influence on each of the United States, Russia and China, even as he has worked to develop closer ties to the Castros in Cuba.  Even Juan Cristobal Nagel at Caracas Chronicles, not exactly a partisan, has some nice things to say about Maduro, but Maduro is not quite the second coming of Lula (nor even, apparently, as open to LGBT rights as the Castro regime in Cuba is fast becoming).

So who loses out with Madero’s elevation? Continue reading In naming Maduro as new VP, Chávez indicates preference for successor →

Venezuela

Chávez headed for apparent narrow reelection in Venezuela

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According to Venezuela’s election commission, Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez has won reelection with 54.42% of the vote in today’s election, apparently, with just 44.97% for Henrique Capriles, his most effective challenger since Chávez was elected as president for the first time in 1998.  Capriles has conceded victory to Chávez. 

The top-notch Caracas Chronicles blog is also reporting that Chávez has won, despite early exit polls that suggested Capriles may have pulled off an upset against Chávez — there’s been no indication as to whether there’s been fraud in the election results, but the election was conducted without international observers.

While the vote may turn out to have been free, it is more difficult to know whether the vote was fair, with many government employees allegedly scared to vote against Chávez, lest they lose their jobs in retribution.

After he is re-inaugurated in January, Chávez’s term will run until 2019.  In power for 14 years, he has brought a uniquely personal brand of ‘Bolivarian’ revolution to Venezuela, and he has now survived an incredibly effective and energetic challenge from the governor of Miranda state, who was supported by a highly unified opposition in the form of the umbrella group Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (MUD).  Capriles, however, it could signal the resurgence of a true opposition and the emergence of a more normal politics in the South American country of nearly 30 million people after Chávez won reelection with 61% six years ago.

Serious questions remain about the future of chavismo, however, starting with the health of the president himself, who underwent treatment abroad earlier this year and last year for an unspecified form of cancer.  Beyond questions of Chávez’s health and issues of transition within his party, the Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV, or United Socialist Party of Venezuela), there remains the question of a stagnant economy propped up solely by Venezuelan oil, murder rates and violent crime that’s some of the worst in the world, and government institutions rife with corruption, abuse and waste and a lack of commitment to freedom of speech and expression in many regards.

Chávez’s support for communist regimes in Latin America, such as Cuba and Nicaragua, and pariah states throughout the world, such as Belarus and Iran, and his wider campaign to oppose and irritate the United States, has left the government isolated.

While Chávez has effected a massive redistribution of wealth to the poorest citizens of Venezuela, Capriles accused his government of squandering the country’s oil wealth both at home and abroad through subsidizes for other socialist regimes.  Capriles ran on a program of liberalizing an economy that Chávez has consolidated under state control.  With Chávez’s reelection, however, it seems likely that Chávez will want to consolidate the socialist nature of Venezuela’s government.

Venezuela

No, but really: Can Henrique Capriles defeat Chavismo?

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I asked that question — Can Henrique Capriles defeat Chavismo? — back in February.

Today, the Toque de Diana blared at 3 a.m. throughout the country, signaling that Venezuelans will go to the polls to decide whether to reelect Hugo Chávez (pictured above, top) for another term in office after 14 years or to elect Capriles (pictured above, below), the 40-year-old governor of Miranda state, to the presidency, but I think the answer is just as unclear right now, hours away from the close of polls, as it was in February.

There have been so many pieces out there this week that describe the state of the race, and an excellent blog that can give you more detailed analysis of the Venezuelan presidential race.  There’s no doubt that Capriles has run a very smart and energetic campaign, and that the race is essentially the first truly contested presidential election since Chávez took power.

But as we get word of results tonight, there are three sets of questions to keep in mind — first, about the election itself; second, about Venezuela if Capriles wins; and finally, about Venezuela if Chávez wins.

First, the election:

What to make of Venezuelan polling? Polls have been all over the place, some showing Chávez locked in a tight race and others showing him winning in a landslide.  Given that Venezuela’s democratic institutions are a standard deviation lower in quality than, say, Peru or other countries in South America, to say nothing as compared to the United States or the European Union, it’s safe to say that we can’t rely much on polls or exit polls to show us too many insights on the Venezuelan result.

How will we even know that the result is accurate? There are no international observers, and Chávez’s Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV, or United Socialist Party of Venezuela) controls many of the levers of government.  If Chávez wins by just a small margin, there’s really no way to know whether the result will have been valid or whether.

As Lara state goes, so goes Venezuela?

If Chávez wins: Continue reading No, but really: Can Henrique Capriles defeat Chavismo? →

Venezuela

Doubts surface in media about Capriles in Venezuelan presidential race

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Journalist Rafael Poleo, not exactly a fan of Hugo Chávez, wrote a column earlier this week, “No camina,” arguing that the opposition campaign of charming, energetic, 39-year old governor of Miranda state, Henrique Capriles, “isn’t walking.” (In English, maybe the best equivalent is that Capriles’s campaign has no legs).

Poleo essentially wrote that Capriles is a weak candidate with the wrong strategy, setting off a week of hand-wringing over the Capriles campaign in the Venezuelan press.

When Capriles won the nomination of the Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (MUD), the umbrella opposition group united against Chávez, there was hope that Capriles, tied at the time in polls against Chávez, might be able to succeed where a decades-worth of opposition candidate failed in defeating a cancer-stricken Chávez — or a Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) without Chávez, chavismo without Chávez.

But that was in February — it’s now June, and the Capriles campaign, while not necessarily uncompetitive with Chávez, hasn’t exactly soared in the polls.  And notwithstanding what Dan Rather may or may not report about how terminal Chávez’s cancer may be, the Venezuelan president needs to hold on to life for just four more months in order to secure another presidential term for the PSUV.

As Francisco Toro explains at the awesome Caracas Chronicles blog: it’s the economy, stupid.  As with any incumbent, Chávez and the PSUV can manipulate the highly state-run economy — and government spending — in ways that Capriles cannot.  Toro points, in particular, to public spending that’s risen 28% against the first quarter of 2011, public sector construction that’s risen 56.6% since the first quarter of 2011, and GDP growth in excess of 5%:

In these circumstances, even a non-Chávez PSUV candidate would have a decent chance against HCR this year. In a petrostate like ours in the middle of an economic and consumption boom, the advantages of incumbency loom large. Very large. Most people just aren’t that interested in politics, most don’t follow politics closely. For them, if their pocketbooks are ok, the guy in power must be doing something right, and that’s that.

Personally, I think that Capriles’s campaign has the right strategy. Within the very narrow confines of what a challenger is able to do when running against a petro-empowered autocracy, I can’t really find fault with Capriles at all. There are two issues that potential swing voters are especially sensitive to – jobs and crime – and he’s hitting both hard. Admittedly, I also find the notion that Rafael Poleo might be right about something a kind of ontological impossibility, so the whole notion that his candidacy “no camina” can probably be dismissed out of hand.

But I also think we should be clear: the basic drivers of what we’re going to see on October 7th have to do with factors both far bigger (the macro-economy) and far smaller (the reproduction rate of certain genetically damaged cells) than anything within Henrique Capriles’s power to change.

For his own part, Capriles claims his campaign is running ‘head to head’ with Chávez.
It’s still a long way to October, though, and Capriles remains in better shape than any presidential challenger to Chávez at any time in the past decade.  Chávez’s health is as uncertain as ever and he has no PSUV-based successor groomed in the event of his death, which could throw the race into turmoil.  Capriles benefits from an unusually united opposition in the meanwhile, and he’s by no means a lost cause.
But no one ever said defeating even a cancer-stricken Chávez would be easy.

Venezuela

A shift in tone about Chávez’s health

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It sounds like Hugo Chávez’s cancer may be taking a turn for the worst, if his teary-eyed moment at a pre-Easter service is any indication. 

From the always superb Caracas Chronicles:

As he customarily does, Chávez turned a religious service into a revival session-cum-political rally-cum-touchingly televised cinematic cliffhanger. He wept, prayed for his life to be spared, and movingly thanked his family for their support.

I don’t want to be too cynical about this, and I am willing to forgive the uncomfortable use of a religious service for … something else. To me, the most noteworthy aspect of this is the shift in tone.

I’ve noted in the past that chavismo without Chávez does not have a promising future — but that may not be the best news for presidential candidate Henrique Capriles.

Capriles has been tied with Chávez in polls in advance of October’s presidential election, although the latest poll from Caracas-based Datanalysis, released on March 29, shows Chávez with a 44.7% to 31.4% lead over Capriles.

Nonetheless, there remains a chance that Chávez’s death or incapacity could trigger any number of events that could supersede the election, including a coup by Chávez’s ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela or a coup by Chávez opponents.

Venezuela

Venezuelan presidential race a toss-up

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The latest poll from Consultores 21, a well-respected Venezuelan poll, released today and taken from March 3 through March 13, shows  Venezuela’s presidential race fairly well tied, as current president Hugo Chávez takes 46% and his challenger Henrique Capriles takes 45%.

The election won’t be held until October, but Capriles provides a unique challenge — in his anti-crime, centrist message to voters, in the unity of the opposition to Chávez, and in the youthful and energetic contrast that the Miranda state governor provides against the cancer-striken president, who’s led Venezuela for the past 13 years.

This will be one to watch.

 

Venezuela

And Chavez is back…

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That didn’t take long.

After returning late Friday to Venezuela following three weeks of treatments for the relapse of his cancer, Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez is back at the center of Venezuelan politics.

He danced for supporters over the weekend and vowed to win the October presidential election, notwithstanding his most recent medical visit to Cuba.  Although Chávez has conceded the return of his cancer, he has not detailed the seriousness or nature of the disease or even much about its treatment.

On Monday, however, Chávez, in bizarre fashion, outlined an assassination plot against his chief rival, Henrique Capriles.  Chávez, in discussing the alleged plot, did not provide many details, but denied that the plot came from within the government.  The president offered protection to Capriles, although it’s debatable how much protection is truly on offer from Chávez, given that the announcement itself seemed a veiled threat against Capriles.

The latest “threat” comes just after shots were fired at a Capriles rally last week in a Caracas slum and Chávez stronghold. Continue reading And Chavez is back… →

Venezuela

Once more unto the breach

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Reports from Venezuela today confirmed that Venezuela president Hugo Chávez’s tumor is indeed cancerous and that the Venezuelan president will remain in Cuba for further radiation treatment. 

Chávez appeared on television Sunday to acknowledge that the two-inch growth was indeed a relapse of the cancer for which he was previously treated last year. He denied that the cancer has spread to other parts of his body and denied rumors of having suffered a post-surgery hemorrhage. Continue reading Once more unto the breach →

Venezuela

Eventos, my dear boy, eventos

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No sooner than a week after an opposition candidate was selected with greater-than-expected turnout in the opposition primary, we learned earlier this week that Venezuela president Hugo Chávez will return to Cuba Friday afternoon for surgery early next week, concerning a new lesion that he admits may well be malignant, coming just a year after cancer treatments and ongoing angst about the health of the cancer-stricken president.

With a fairly popular and united opposition candidate in Henrique Capriles giving Chávez his toughest contest in perhaps the entirety of his 13-year reign as president, Chávez’s health becomes the central issue for the foreseeable future in the election battle, with Chávez to be in Cuba for treatment and recovery for weeks thereafter.

The change of events leaves more questions than answers: Continue reading Eventos, my dear boy, eventos →

Venezuela

Porque no te callas?*

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Meanwhile, in Venezuela, Hugo Chávez has launched a rip-snorting fusilade against opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles with some, ahem, choice words (video with subtitles below compliments of The Guardian):

My mission… (will be) to take off the mask, you low-life, because no matter how much you disguise it, low-life, you have a pig’s tail, a pig’s ears, and you snort like a pig.

Chávez apparently also refers to Capriles not by name, but by reference to el majunche, or “the crappy one.”

So glad to see that the race is off to such a promising start.

Continue reading Porque no te callas?* →

Venezuela

Can Henrique Capriles defeat Chavismo?

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Can a 39-year-old newcomer to the Venezuelan political scene usher an end to 13 years of Chavismo?

Meet Henrique Capriles, the governor of the coastal state of Miranda in Venezuela, who won the opposition’s primary on Sunday with overwhelming support for the chance to face off against Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez.   Continue reading Can Henrique Capriles defeat Chavismo? →