A quick rundown of where Greece and Europe stand in the wake of today’s early-morning deal:
1 Temporary Grexit plan seriously devalued long-term stability of eurozone and EU leaders will regret at next Italy crisis or whatever.
— Kevin Lees (@Suffragio) July 13, 2015
2 Now a serious question of whether eurozone is a currency snake with schizophrenic political ambitions. — Kevin Lees (@Suffragio) July 13, 2015
3 Schauble now most popular politician in Germany, Merkel weaker than ever, dynamics within CDU/CSU have implications for 4th Merkel term. — Kevin Lees (@Suffragio) July 13, 2015
4 Hollande and French gov’t get a lot of credit for the deal and for prioritizing European unity and idealism of EU project. — Kevin Lees (@Suffragio) July 13, 2015
5 Pyrrhic win for Hollande b/c policies he convinced Greece to accept haven’t boosted French jobs/growth, leaving him massively unpopular.
— Kevin Lees (@Suffragio) July 13, 2015
6 Tspiras/SYRIZA haven’t conducted past 5 months well, but 3rd bailout politically damaging for Greece. Right, left, far left all tainted.
— Kevin Lees (@Suffragio) July 13, 2015
7 If in six months there’s an election and the third bailout doesn’t work, will Golden Dawn win even more votes? Optics here mock democracy. — Kevin Lees (@Suffragio) July 13, 2015
8 What, exactly, did #oxi vote mean? Even if you believe referendum illegal/needless delay, 3rd bailout ignores popular will (in Greece). — Kevin Lees (@Suffragio) July 13, 2015
9 Greece now a larger version of Cyprus w/ tighter capital controls & less clarity about political will — Anastasiades elected to make deal
— Kevin Lees (@Suffragio) July 13, 2015
10 Hard to know which greater miscalculation in 2014 – Samaras snap elections decision or EG unwillingness to make better deal w/ Samaras
— Kevin Lees (@Suffragio) July 13, 2015
11 Another massive dose of austerity, w/ SYRIZA’s economic mismanagement, will drag Greece back into depression. 2% to 4% contraction.
— Kevin Lees (@Suffragio) July 13, 2015
12 Stunningly, deal terms could have been much worse for Greece — lucky there aren’t depositor bail-ins Merkel originally wanted for Cyprus
— Kevin Lees (@Suffragio) July 13, 2015
13 Still, really ugly stuff. Stuck w/ monetary policy straitjacket, no hope at stimulus to jolt seriously damaged aggregate demand.
— Kevin Lees (@Suffragio) July 13, 2015
14 Deal could still bring down Finland’s government, b/c Finns Party ran on a pledge of no new money for Greece. Maybe long-run better.
— Kevin Lees (@Suffragio) July 13, 2015